General Reactions from Super Tuesday

So I ended up staying up until 1 AM watching the Super Tuesday returns come in. I just couldn't turn off CNN or stop refreshing the New York Times page to see how delegates in California were going to be apportioned. As melodramatic as it may sound, it feels like a seminal moment, for both sides actually. Barack and Hillary is a real dogfight; it may go to the convention. Mccain is going to wrap it up, but there's real potential (as one of my friends pointed it out) that a "real conservative" like Pat Buchanan or some other nutjob will try to run as well. At the very least, there will be much conservative opposition to a Mccain opposition. It may embolden conservatives as much as the prospect of Hillary running. Anyways, I wanted to break down the returns and what they mean, in my opinion, for the future.

1. Barack Obama

Overall, Barack did well, perhaps better than expected. Although he didn't win as many delegates as Hillary, he won more states and is really gaining popularity with the independents and new, young voters. Two critical blocs.

What was really encouraging to see is that his wins (besides Missouri and Connecticut) were really definitive wins. He routinely got 65-35 or 70-30. It makes up for the more marginal shortfall in the states he lost, thanks to the proportional representation rule for the Democratic primaries.

Barack is in great shape. He has plenty of money and is moving on to states that he should win pretty easily I think (Maryland, DC, maybe Ohio and Texas too). You get the sense that the Barack train is gaining momentum at the right time. And that's especially good news considering that he's less than 100 delegates behind. Yes we can, indeed.

2. Hillary Clinton

Overall, I think Hillary hd a mixed night. Sure, she grabbed the Latino vote and was able to contain O-mentum in the Northeast and in California, but she failed to put Barack away. That was supposed to be the goal after winning so many primaries after Iowa. In her home state of New York, she had a 15 point win, but it should have been a 30 point difference. Her victory margins weren't convincing enough in those large states she won. That's precisely what she needed to put away Obama.

Regardless, I have to respect Hillary's resilience in the Northeast. The Ted Kennedy, Deval Patrick, and John Kerry endorsements amounted to almost nothing in Massachusetts. Which seems to reinforce my opinion that the Kennedy mystique is really a bunch of hogwash and that Kerry is desperate to appear relevant after losing in 2004. Anyway, Hillary missed a golden opportunity to really put away the upstart and she should be genuinely worried that she came out of Super Tuesday in a virtual tie.

3. John McCain

Not really much to say about Mccain. He did as well as expected by capturing the large states. The only worrisome point is that he did not catch much of the conservative vote. In the Solid South, for instance, they were much more willing to go for the huckster.

Is that going to stop him from getting the nomination? No not at all. The conservative base, although always an importnat component in the GOP, is taking a backseat to moderates and independents in the party this time around. I think people are genuinely fatigued with Bushie style neocons who were partly responsible for the partisanship in this country nowadays. McCain represnets an opportunity to build bridges with the Dems and stop the petty bickering.

The best way for him to allay the Rush Limbaughs and Ann Coulters is to have a conservative VP, in my opinion. By the way, I think it's nothing short of a miracle that McCain is in the race, much less the lead, given how his campaign imploded in the summer. He's a fighter and will roll to the nomination no problem, especially given the winner takes all aspect of the GOP primaries.

4. Mitt Romney

So much for the "I am the conservative" talk. It really amounted to an extremely subpar showing. The problem with his re-positioning of himself as the alternative to McCain lies in his disingenious nature. He's flopped more than a fish out of water from the start of his campaign. Primary voters are smart enough to know that. It doesn't help that he's just plain an unlikable person. He attacks people for positions he once held and has the audacity to label himself a "conservative" and try to have Huckabee drop out. He will do anything that is politically expedient. If tomorrow Republicans decided they all wanted to be pro-choice, hemp smoking, flag burning hippies living in communes, Mitt would start to champion all those in a new, redesigned platform the next day.

Mitt Romney is a tool of unimaginable proportions; I can't stress it enough. He's his own biggest donor, and with a personal value of a quarter of a billion, he will stay in this race until the convention. And then when he officially loses, he will not be gracious and congratulate and support McCain. Instead, he will whine like a little bitch thanks to his oversized ego.

I think it says a lot when Republicans themselves say they would vote for Hillary over Mitt. They can smell a con artist when they see one.

5. Mike Huckabee

No-one gave Huckabee much of a chance to do anything. His strong showing in the South doesn't mean he'll win the nomination, but it will give him strong consideration as a VP candidate for McCain. In addition, his folksy roots and nice guy attitude would really help to balance out the smugness and somewhat elitist tendencies of mccain. Mitt's claim that he was the real conservative candidate and that Huckabee should drop out in all probability helped to rally support for the huckster.

I especially liked how West Virginia turned out. McCain supporters realizing that they had no chance after the first round, put all of their support behind Huckabee. Hence, Huckabee edged out Romney in WV. Was this is a behind the back collusion as the Romney camp asserts? No, it's just genuine dislike for Mitt Romney. Did I mention I don't like Romney enough?

Anyways, Huckabee is a breath of fresh air, but missed an opportunity to capitalize on his Iowa win to build broad support outside of evangelicals. Evangelical support will not carry the day in 2008 and his camp should have made adjustments after the Iowa win.